Tesla Motors is hardly on deaths door, but on the verge of greatness

We’ve been patiently, or not so patiently, waiting for Tesla Motors to announce Q4 2012 sales figures.  A lot is riding on those sales figures (see Tesla Motors will either fly high or crash in 2013 depending on Model S sales) in that the fate of Tesla Motors hangs in the balance, and by extension the fate of the project of adopting electrified vehicles.  If Tesla were to crash and burn, and the company did nearly run out of money in Q3 2012, it would further erode confidence in electrified vehicles and undermine the investments in the whole green technology sphere.  And, I don’t think I’m overhyping this.An interesting analysis was posted on SeekingAlpha claiming that Tesla’s success is already in the bag even if it delivered only 500 Model S’s in Q4 2012.  I think the post is spot on and am anxiously looking forward to Tesla announcing those dang sales figures.  Why oh why can’t they do as the other automakers and announce monthly sales numbers?

Tesla had announced during Q4 revised sales forecast in the neighborhood of 2500-3250 Model S’s during the quarter.

Because Tesla is not releasing those numbers except in quarterly SEC filings, the Tesla fan community has crowd-sourced the data instead.  That data shows Model S reservations occurring at an average rate of 89 per day, which is a very fast rate.  This is more than Tesla’s production rate, I believe.

The phrase is “surplus of demand”.

Next – Tesla has already multiplied its revenue greatly … has already had at least a brief moment of operating at cash flow break even … and has already sold enough electric cars to significantly shift the total sales of electric cars.

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That with an ultra-expensive luxury car, while the likes of Nissan are struggling to find interested buyers for the more modestly priced Nissan Leaf.

 

About David Herron

David Herron is a writer and software engineer living in Silicon Valley. He primarily writes about electric vehicles, clean energy systems, climate change, peak oil and related issues. When not writing he indulges in software projects and is sometimes employed as a software engineer. David has written for sites like PlugInCars and TorqueNews, and worked for companies like Sun Microsystems and Yahoo.

About David Herron

David Herron is a writer and software engineer living in Silicon Valley. He primarily writes about electric vehicles, clean energy systems, climate change, peak oil and related issues. When not writing he indulges in software projects and is sometimes employed as a software engineer. David has written for sites like PlugInCars and TorqueNews, and worked for companies like Sun Microsystems and Yahoo.

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